Naxxramas Card Evaluation

Finally, the Naxxramas expansion for Hearthstone has been announced, with the announcement comes a sneak-peek at five new cards. This block of text will be examining each one. I will be offering my opinion (and the reasoning behind it) for each of the cards. This mostly for fun, but the aim is that you, dear reader, learn something about how we can approach news of new cards. So far only the cards that have been announced, are as follows:

Baron Rivendare {Legendary} : 4 mana 1/7. Your minions trigger their Deathrattles twice

Nerubian Egg: 2 mana 0/2. Deathrattle: Summon a 4/4 Nerubian

Undertaker: 1 mana 1/2. Whenever you summon a minion with a Deathrattle gain +1/+1

Shade of Naxxramas: 3 mana 2/2. Stealth. At the start of your turn, gain +1/+1

Dancing Swords: 3 mana 4/4. Deathrattle: Your opponent draws a card.

Before you start reading this rather detailed treatise on the cards (no joke, this is longer than most of the essay’s I did for my degree… which is, when you think about it, a terribly sad indictment on our education system / my life) I suggest you have a go. Look at each card, think about how good they are and why you think they are that good. Once you have done that you can compare notes with what I said. If there happens to be a difference of opinion we can wonder who has got closer to the truth (drumroll please).

FIGHT!

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Baron Rivendare

Opinion: Good (Constructed), Average (Arena)

Why?

Why not start with the stats? Baron is a 1/7 for 4 mana, which is similar to Mogu’shan Warden. The general consensus on that card is that it is overall worse than Sen’jin Sheildmasta, this is because in most matchups Sen’jin’s 3/5 stats allow him to trade with most two or three drops in the game, meanwhile the warden usually just pings a bunch of two/three drops for a mere 1 damage. Interestingly enough, if you think about him as a some sort ‘tempo-squish card’ and/or you have follow-up AoE then its clear he does have a trick or two up the sleeve.

But that side-note aside, it seems, prima facie, as if Baron’s stats are not great. How fortunate it is then that we will not playing Baron for his stats but for his ability (good starts are just icing on the jumbo sausage). It’s worth noting that since his ability is a continual effect and not a Deathrattle/Battlecry then we want him on the board for as long as possible (e.g. compare how Murloc Warleader and Coldlight Seer interact with the game world). Thus it seems that while his stats are not good for trading, they are good for keeping him alive (at seven health he is above most removal, even Fireball cant touch this. Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh oh-oh). Food for thought; would changing him to a 3/5 be a nerf or a buff?

Baron is going to work great with the early drops with deathrattles (e.g. Leper gnome, Loot Horder, Harvest Golem, Nerubian Egg etc) because we can play him on turn 4 and extract the value before there is a chance to counter (assuming the Golem/Gnome etc haven’t been silenced already), just as we did with Cult Master. Of course, this prospect isn’t really what people are getting excited about, what people really want to do is play Baron and make themselves an army with Cairne Bloodhoof, or better yet steal an army with Sylvanas Windrunner.

While this sounds amazing the practical reality is that playing Sylvanas Windrunner (or Cairne) and Baron on the same turn offers the opponent a chance to counter; a simple silence on either minion and the dream dies. And let’s be honest, in that situation a silence/hex is bloody likely!

Another possibility is that we play Cairne on turn 6 (as usual) and we put Baron in the deck because we hope that on some later turn we can drop Baron and trade Bloodhoof to get some value. This is all fine, but the problem here is that Cairne is usually considered a high threat and is therefore promptly silenced or hexed.
Moreover, if they cannot counter with Silence then they can counter by playing minions that cannot trade the Bloodhoof (e.g. they play Chillwind Yeti instead of the Mountain Giant in hand). This all (probably) means the ability to drop Baron (on turn 7 say) and get two of Baine Bloodhoof is not something we can expect to achieve often.

With this said, the great thing about Cairne of course is that he is just solid in his own right, thus you could shove both Baron and Cairne in a deck together and care not one iota whether you actually land the combo or not. nonetheless my point is that we probably cannot build a deck with Cairne and two Harvest Golems in it and expect Baron to do great things for us. Unlike Cairne, Baron does not strike me as a ‘spam-able’ legendary (i.e. you have to build around Baron) .

So far it looks like Baron is a card that could do well in lower-curve decks but isn’t going to be exceptionally strong in control decks due to the fact that all the deathrattles you would want to trigger are likely to be prevented or countered in some way, and that is especially true if your opponent thinks you are playing Baron in the deck.

However there is one other possibility; just like a ‘same-turn’ cult master can combo with charge minions, Baron will similarly combo with any ‘deathrattle minion’ that dies on the turn it is played. This makes me wonder “what could we kill on the same turn we play it?” Here are a few ideas:

(A) Nerubian Egg {2}, Leper Gnome {3}, Baron Rivendare {7}, Void Terror (targeting the egg and the gnome) {10 mana spent}.

The result? 4 damage to enemy hero, 1/7 Baron in play, two 4/4 Nerubian’s in play, and a 5/6 Void Terror.

(B) Baron Rivendare {4}, Abomination {9}, Power Overwhelming (on Abomination) {10 mana spent}

The result? An injured Baron in play and 2×2 damage to all characters. (note; its not 4 damage, it will do 2 and then 2 again, which due to things like Divine Shield could be significant. In other words this combo is not the same as Flamestrike)

(C) Baron Rivendare {4}, Loot Hoarder {6}, Mortal Coil (on Hoarder) {7 mana spent}

The result? Baron in play and 3 card draw (note that Sprint is 4 cards for 7 mana).

So the interim conclusion is that lower-curve decks will get some juice out of him but the control decks may struggle if they intend on going for big plays over multiple turns. However, they are plenty of smaller same turn combos that the control decks could utilise. Used in this way then Baron could offer a control deck utility, and the occasional Baine army (luck permitting).

But returning to the ‘low-curve decks’ I think of all of them Aggro-Paladin maybe the deck most likely to benefit, I say that for two reasons. The first is that these aggro decks typically already run Loot Hoarder because it is cheap and they really need the card draw (whereas Warlocks prefer the Hero Power). The second reason is the spell Redemption, which will of course offer the Paladin player more ways to squeeze value out of his/her deathrattles.

To conclude it seems that some of the aggro decks may like Baron because they typically like the deathrattle minions anyway. The first wave of control decks to use Baron will, I predict, try to set up big Sylvanas Windrunner steals and/or Cairne power-plays, but will probably not be incredibly successful due to the array of counters available to the opposing player. The control decks that do make Baron work wonders will probably be those that have a nice array single turn combos with him (Void Terror wake up! It is your turn to shine).

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Nerubian Egg

Opinion: Good, possibly brilliant (Constructed), above average (Arena)

Why?

Okay so first things first; the vanilla stat test. A 0/2 for 2 mana is clearly dreadful, but 4/4 for two mana is joint first with Millhouse Manastorm (a card which comes with a hefty pricetag, I should add). Clearly then, if we can get this thing dead quickly then we are getting ourselves a great deal.

A comparison between Ancient Watcher and the Egg is useful to some extent, afterall, they both have the same cost, similar stats (4/4 vs 4/5) and they both come into play as useless statues that we have to put some effort into making good. But that is where the analogies end; they are both activated by different means (silence and death) and serve a different function. While Sunfury Protector can make use of both minions the reasons why you would taunt them up are quintessentially different; A Watcher druid taunts in order to soak up damage, whereas you would desperately want the taunted egg to die in order to get a big hitter. Likewise, Watcher gives the Warlock a good Shadowflame target but the egg would clearly suck at that role. So, what decks can I see this egg in?

For the Warlock Zoo player it seems as this card could be a good investment. The card punishes AoE (e.g Explosive Trap), which indirectly boosts the survivability of all your other minions in play. It also combos with well with a number of other staple cards (e.g. Abusive Sargent, Dire Wolf Alpha, Knife Juggler, Shattered Sun Cleric, Defender of Argus, Power Overwhelming etc). The same is true for Paladin Aggro; they can activate the egg with cards such as Sword of Justice or Blessing of Might.

More interesting however is the possibility that it may also feature in the slower control decks as a way to fend off aggro (with that said, probably not much use against hunter-aggro). A shaman for example could play the egg on turn 2 and if it survives you play Rockbiter Weapon (or Flametongue Totem) on it, hopefully killing a minion and netting you a new 4/4 in the process. Similarly Druids could follow up with Power of the Wild, Mark of the Wild, or Savage Roar, Warriors have enrage mechanics (e.g Cruel Taskmaster), Control-Paladins have Equality + Wild Pyromancer and Mages have the Hero power. Not to mention that all of these control decks could bring neutral cards like Mad Bomber out of retirement too.

Lastly, let’s not forget all those Baron Rivendare ‘deathrattle decks’ we may see.

Long story short, this card has the potential to mix up everything; it could be a welcome addition to the aggro decks as well as giving control and midrange decks more ways of handling the Zoo face rush. In this regard it could be like Harvest Golem (i.e. played by most archetypes)

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Undertaker

Opinion: good, but nothing special (Constructed). Okay, possibly below average (Arena)

Why?

I think my comments will be brief on this one because it is a rather simple card akin to Secret Keeper. Its starting stats pass the vanilla test and you only need a single trigger for it to rival the two drops. Given that there are a number of low-cost minions with good deathrattles it seems as if this little guy will be given plenty of opportunities to grow and may therefore find itself frequently trading with the 3 drops or even grow larger still (like Murloc Tidecaller). Once again, Paladin-Aggro is perhaps the key winner here since the effect is ‘summon’ as opposed to ‘cast’, which means Redemption combo’s.

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Shade of Naxxramas

Opinion: Poor, possibly terrible (Constructed). Okay, possibly good (Arena)

Why?

Well, firstly lets list a few counters to it; Hunters have Flare and Freezing Trap, almost all classes have access to AoE that could deal with it (eg Brawl, Flamestrike, Lightning Storm, etc), then you have the non-targeted removal (e.g. Forked Lightning, Multi-shot), and the non-target affects/abilities (e.g. Mass Dispel, Mind Control Tech). Finally if you plan on a big single game ending attack there is things like taunt and Ice Block to prevent that.

And once it leaves stealth we have even more options such as damage spells, weapon attacks, minion attacks, silence and so on.

Now, I want you to forget everything I just said; I don’t think that this card is bad because there exist a lot of counters, I think it would still be bad if all the counters went away (okay, I’m exaggerating here, but only slightly). Basically I think it is bad because the only counter you need is a faster clock (which is easy to get). And moreover, if you use it within 1-2 turns of playing it then I’d wager that Jungle Panther offers better value.

Overall, I think that it is a “trap card” which beginners will think is great but more experienced players will probably avoid.

Okay, so let us dive into the detail, just why is it bad? (warning; this gets long, probably wrong, and unnecessarily complicated… just how I like it)

I’ve been arguing on a number of forums on this one, the general “its good” argument says something like this; “I play it and let it grow, I will buff it as and when I can and one day it will emerge from hiding and bring with it the apocalypse (and possibly bagels, if we ask nicely)”.

The plan is to keep it hidden away nice and safe and buff it for the win. My counter argument can be summed up like this; by playing the card you are forgoing board control and chances are that this weakness snowballs faster than Shade manages to grow.

My prediction for Shade is that people will try him, lose a bunch of games to the significantly faster decks (e.g. Aggro, Miracle Rogue), at which point they will decide that the cards niche is as part of an control vs control match-up. After a while they will realise that the plan of waiting and buffing loses not just to aggro but also other control decks. The reason being is that by playing a passive 3 drop you risk losing control of the board and that ultimately leads to taking more damage than shade can possibly dish out before he is countered. By playing a card ‘waiting’ for it to good you are effectively playing down a card and at a tempo disadvantage. You are “down a card” in the sense that had you of built your deck differently you could have played a card that fights for board control instead of the shade. With Shade your fight for board dominance effectively starts with you down a card and skipping turn 3.

Okay so onto the last card.

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Dancing Swords

Opinion: poor overall, but possibly very good in very Niche builds (Constructed), Average (Arena)

Why?

I will be brief on this one as well. Its stats are very good for cost; at 4/4 he is bigger than all other 3 drops, except for King Mukla. And unlike Injured blademaster, this guy can swing in and survive a Knife Juggler hit, so yes,that additional point of health matters. Of course this power comes with a cost; upon death your opponent gains a card. This basically means that the card needs to 2-for-1 minions in order to break even (which is why it matters that he can take on the likes of Juggler and live long enough to write bard song or two about it). With this said, Aggro is less concerned with how many cards the enemy player has (it merely matters that he has enough), and thus the deathrattle is less relevant here. Moreover, if you are ahead on board then you may even find that the game ends before your opponent can get the card by killing him. This fact distinguishes him from Mukla, whose downside is immediate.

It is also worth pointing out that his ‘downside’ also has an ‘upside’, if you are willing to make a deck that works for it. Every once in a while you will see someone try some sort of mill-deck, they will use cards like Naturalise, Sap, Vanish, Coldlight Oracle, King Mukla and so on in order to fill up the opponents hand and burn them out. Clearly, Dancing Swords has a natural home in any deck that is trying this sort of tactic. And it could be fantastic fit if said deck finds a home for Baron Rivendare as well.

So far you may be reading this and be wondering what justifies the ‘poor’ rating. Well, my concern for this card is the competition it will face in the meta. As a 3 drop it will find itself fighting a lot of 1’s,2’s, and 4’s. As it stands right now there is plenty of spells that swing for four (e.g Swipe, Soulfire), a good few ways for the 1’s and 2’s to trade up against him (e.g. Abusive Sergeant), as well as the new egg two drop cleanly trading with him. And finally, it will struggle against some of the most common 4 drop minions (e.g. Yeti, Sen’jin, Violet Teacher, Water Elemental, etc). Compare this situation with that of Flame Imp; in the case of Flame Imp he can take on everything his cost and the majority of two drops as well, Dancing Sword is nowhere near this dominant.

My point earlier was that Dancing Sword needs to 2-for-1 in order to break even. Well, my point now is that in constructed the card may truly struggle to achieve that; the competition is fierce and he has a juicy bounty on its head. In aggro it may do fine (since the downside is less relevant) but even those players may still prefer to run something like Scarlet Crusader instead.

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So that concludes my long post about my thoughts on these cards. Since Grandma is probably the only person that managed to get this far I’ll address my comments to her. Only time will tell how good these predictions are, but as I said, it doesn’t really matter. What does matter is the process, we can learn a lot by methodically going through the cards and considering the merits of each one in different situations. Hopefully you learned something, and hopefully what you have learned will help you both your play and your deck building. I’m also thinking Priests need to find a way to deal with 4 attack minions rather sharpish.