Team IHearthU: Greed is Good - When to Make the Greedy Play in Hearthstone

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If you’ve ever tuned into a cast of a professional Hearthstone game, you likely heard the casters, at some point, refer to a play as “greedy” or “safe”. Perhaps it was described as overly so, with some dismay in the commenters’ voices. But what exactly are they referring to when they say a player is playing greedily? And should you play greedy or safe when you hop into the tavern for a couple games?

What is Greed?

Greed, as it relates to Hearthstone, is opting for either extra damage to your opponent or extra minions on the field, and betting that your opponent doesn’t have an answer. For example, if you have a 3/2 minion on the field against your opponent’s 2/2 minion, the greedy play would be to attack his face rather than trade, betting that they will do the trading for you. That way, you get the damage and the trade that would have occurred; essentially having your cake and eating it too. Another example would be attacking with your minions in such a way that all of them are at very low health, rather than trading the weakest ones in and cashing in on their value right away. If there’s no area-of-effect clear the next turn, you’re free to inflict more damage or trade even more effectively.

Making a safe play, on the other hand, would be doing the exact opposite of the above two plays. Another safe play would be to eliminate as many of the opponent’s minions as possible using your board and/or spells. Finally, one of the most common safe plays seen, and the one amateurs often make, is to clear an opponent’s minion rather than develop a minion of their own.

When Should I Make the Greedy Play?

First off: making a greedy play is not the same thing as making a risky play. Yes, you’re incurring some short-term risk when you play greedy, but increasing your long-term odds of winning the game is worth it. Here’s an example: say you’ve calculated that there’s only a 10% chance that your opponent can punish your greedy play, but that your winning percentage goes from 45% to 55% overall if you make the play (and it goes unpunished). In this case, you would have to lose 95% of the games that you get punished and win 95% of the games you played safe (and would have gotten punished) for the odds to even out. Of course, the percentages aren’t always this extreme or cut-and-dried, but playing to your odds of winning the game rather than the next play is always correct.

Now, when looking to maximize your overall win percentage on a certain move, you have to take into account the usual win percentage in the matchup. If you’re playing a matchup that is typically unfavorable for you, then going greedy is likely the way to go. Sometimes you just have to assume that your opponent doesn’t have the perfect hand if you are to come out of a disadvantageous situation. Another time to go greedy is when you’ve deduced, as in the above example, that there’s a very small likelihood that your opponent has an answer, and that playing greedily will grant you a decent advantage over the long run. This situation often occurs against Paladin, a class without very much single-target removal until turn four with the Truesilver Champion.

One of the most common mistakes I see my students make is to favor clearing the board with spells or putting up a taunt unnecessarily. Sure, you’re guaranteed to come out of the turn with your opponent’s current minions dead (or in the second case, you won’t be dead), but playing a minion of your own would give you a more advantageous board position. It is only if your opponent has a likely favorable trade to make and your spell was particularly useful in that situation, for the clear to have been warranted. As for the second case, it’s important to consider the chances of your opponent having lethal damage in the next couple of turns, and maximizing the value of your cards if you have the room to do so. After all, a Sunfury Protector on two creatures is often better than one. Along those same lines, using your face to clear a minion and save removal spells (or minions) can go a long way if your opponent isn’t likely to have lethal for a while.

Finally, though it was mentioned two paragraphs ago that you should play greedy in an unfavorable matchup, the opposite is not always true. Sometimes the percentages of the matchup are determined based on the assumption that the class with the favorable odds plays in a greedy fashion. The best-illustrated example of this idea is from a matchup that no longer exists: pre-Leeroy Jenkins nerf Miracle Rogue versus Handlock. Often, the Handlock player, knowing they were in a favorable matchup, would clear the opponent’s board rather than play their own gigantic minions. It would seem obvious that the deck with the better odds of winning should play conservatively. However, the entire premise behind Handlock being favorable was based on Rogue being unable to handle multiple turns of huge minions. By giving the Rogue player more time, the Handlock player was unwittingly playing into their opponent’s hands, allowing the Rogue huge Gadgetzan Auctioneer turns and turning the matchup into more of a 50-50 battle. Though they were afraid of the huge burst from Miracle Rogue, it was more often correct to assume their opponent didn’t have the perfect cards and play out their threats. Current examples of playing greedy even in a favorable matchup are Zoo versus Warrior (Fiery War Axe) or Hunter versus Druid (Swipe).

When Should I Make the Safe Play?

Although I just gave a couple of examples of playing greedy in a good matchup, it is usually best to play relatively conservatively if you’re in a favorable matchup. Yes, you shouldn’t be afraid of Fiery War Axe against Warrior as a Zoolock player, but throwing down a Nerubian Egg or other such Deathrattle is usually important to play around Brawl. Similarly, using an AoE clear on a couple of minions can be reasonable, given you know that your deck has much better draw density.

As an aggressive player in a favorable matchup, you will want to play around your opponent’s class’ AoE options by possibly foregoing some damage in order to keep certain minions’ health above the magic number. An example would be trading a 3/2 into a 1/1 instead of using your 2/3, because of the possibility of a 2-damage AoE spell. Likewise, if you’re a control player and an aggressive player just attacked your face, don’t get stubborn and attack his face back; make the trade for him, since that’s your best chance of winning the game.

Summary

In this article, I’ve given a lot of hypotheticals and different situations both specific and general. When deciding whether to make the greedy or safe play in any game, consider all the circumstances - one differing detail can change the correct play. Overall, it’s usually best to play as greedy as possible without stepping over the line. Doing so will likely give you the highest odds of winning the game.